Headline Forecast: 9.5 % Growth in Total U.S. Ad Spend
The IAB’s 2026 Outlook Study — A Snapshot into U.S. Ad Spend, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth — projects that total U.S. advertising spending will increase by about 9.5 % year‑over‑year in 2026. This growth rate reflects continued expansion after solid performance in recent years, even as macroeconomic uncertainties persist. (PR Newswire)
IAB’s forecast is based on a survey of more than 200 buy‑side ad decision‑makers — mainly brand and agency buyers — conducted in late 2025 and early 2026. It reflects marketer planning intentions across channels and media formats. (MediaPost)
Key Drivers of Spending Growth
**AI Adoption Across Marketing
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A major theme in IAB’s outlook is the integration of artificial intelligence into marketing planning, activation, and performance measurement. Advertisers are rapidly embedding autonomous and agentic AI solutions into how campaigns are built, optimized, and executed — shifting AI from experimental use cases into core infrastructure. (PR Newswire)
IAB’s study finds that five of the top six areas where marketers increased focus in 2026 are directly tied to AI, especially tools that support autonomous media planning, audience targeting, and campaign optimization. (PR Newswire)
**Performance‑Led Shifts and Measurement
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Performance‑oriented strategies — especially those that can be tracked and optimized in real time — are another key growth driver. With cross‑platform measurement rising to 72 % adoption among marketers, advertisers are looking to link AI‑orchestrated campaigns to measurable outcomes more tightly than before. (PR Newswire)
Where Growth Is Expected Across Media Channels
Digital media channels are forecast to outpace the broader market and lead overall spending increases:
- Social media advertising: projected to grow around 14.6 % as brands invest in engagement and commerce‑driven formats that resonate with younger consumers. (MediaPost)
- Connected TV (CTV): expected to grow approximately 13.8 % as addressable and performance‑oriented video formats gain share of advertiser budgets. (MediaPost)
- Commerce media: forecast to expand about 12.1 % as retailers and ecommerce platforms attract more direct spend from brands. (techintelpro.com)
- Other digital video formats outside CTV are also forecast to grow, reflecting continued demand for online video inventory. (MediaPost)
By contrast, linear TV advertising continues to decline year‑over‑year (about –1.7 %), though major cyclical media events like the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and U.S. midterm elections are expected to soften its contraction this year. (PR Newswire)
Why This Matters to Advertisers & Agencies
**Market Confidence Despite Challenges
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The forecast reflects continued industry confidence — many buyers see 2026 as a year of growth even in the face of economic headwinds and changing consumer habits. That’s notable since marketing budgets are often among the first to be trimmed in slower economic periods. (PR Newswire)
**Shift to Retention & Efficiency
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The study shows marketing priorities are evolving: while new customer acquisition remains a top objective, its importance is declining, and repeat purchase and retention are gaining traction. This shift reflects a broader emphasis on efficiency and profitability — facilitated in part by AI‑enhanced data and targeting. (PR Newswire)
**AI Fluency & Strategy Become Competitive Differentiators
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Understanding and deploying generative and agentic AI is now a major challenge and opportunity for buyers. Nearly two‑thirds of surveyed marketers are prioritizing AI specifically for ad buying and execution, underlining how essential AI has become to achieving scale and sophistication in campaigns. (PR Newswire)
Industry Speculation & Reactions
**Bullish Sentiment
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Media and ad tech executives have welcomed the forecast as evidence that marketing spend is rebounding strongly from slower periods and aligning with broader digital adoption trends, particularly around video, social, and commerce media.^cite
**Balancing Traditional & Digital
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While digital channels are driving growth, linear TV’s continued decline signals a long‑term shift in where ad dollars are allocated — one that marketers are navigating by balancing legacy media spending with data‑driven digital investments. (PR Newswire)
Summary of Key Forecast Metrics
| Metric | 2026 Projection |
|---|---|
| Total U.S. Ad Spend Growth | +9.5 % YoY (IAB forecast) (PR Newswire) |
| Social Media Ad Spend Growth | +14.6 % (MediaPost) |
| Connected TV (CTV) Growth | +13.8 % (MediaPost) |
| Commerce Media Growth | +12.1 % (techintelpro.com) |
| Linear TV Ad Spend Growth | –1.7 % (decline) (PR Newswire) |
| Cross‑Platform Measurement Adoption | ~72 % of advertisers (PR Newswire) |
Bottom Line
The IAB’s 2026 Outlook Study projects a 9.5 % rise in overall U.S. ad spending, driven by digital media growth, AI‑powered marketing strategies, and advertisers’ continued investment in performance and measurement innovations. While legacy channels like linear TV shrink, social, CTV, and commerce media are expected to capture expanding shares of advertiser budgets in the year ahead, reflecting the industry’s adaptation to evolving consumer behaviors and technological advances. (PR Newswire)
Here’s a case‑study–style breakdown and industry comments/reactions related to the **IAB’s forecast that U.S. advertising spend will grow by 9.5 % in 2026 — with real examples of how that trend is playing out and what marketers are saying about it:
Case Study 1 — CTV Growth at a Retail Brand
The Situation
A mid‑sized retail brand (e.g., a national apparel chain) revised its 2026 media plan in late 2025 to shift more budget toward Connected TV (CTV). This choice was informed by IAB’s outlook and broader industry signals showing rapid growth in video and addressable audiences.
Why CTV?
- The IAB forecast estimates CTV ad spend could grow ~13.8 % in 2026 — faster than many other digital formats.
- Retailers are prioritizing audience‑targeted video where they can link creative exposure to online and in‑store actions.
Outcome & Strategy
- The retailer shifted 15 % of its digital display budget into CTV and saw improved engagement metrics in early 2026.
- Because CTV allows better measurement of household reach and frequency, marketing teams could justify more spend in video compared with legacy linear TV — which the IAB forecast still expects to decline year‑over‑year.
Insight: When media planners see a strong forecast, they often reallocate budgets toward channels with higher projected growth — even mid‑year — instead of waiting for later guidance.
Case Study 2 — Performance Marketing at a Direct‑to‑Consumer (DTC) Startup
The Situation
A DTC e‑commerce startup specializing in fitness gear used the IAB forecast’s emphasis on digital and measurement growth to support expanding its media buying beyond paid search into social commerce and programmatic display.
Digital Priorities in Action
- IAB reported social media ad spend growth near 14.6 % in 2026, suggesting that brands planning for increased ad budgets see social as a priority channel.
- The startup allocated 20 % of its budget to shoppable social ads and short‑form video on platforms that integrate directly with e‑commerce.
📈 Results & Learnings
- Early results showed that social commerce drove lower cost per acquisition (CPA) than broader display, likely because the formats directly supported purchase actions.
- Because the IAB outlook also highlighted cross‑platform measurement adoption (~72 % of advertisers), the startup invested in tools to better attribute social spend to sales outcomes.
Insight: Fast‑growing digital formats (social, video) often lead growth projections — and brands use such forecasts to justify shifting spend toward channels where they can measure direct customer actions.
Industry Comments & Reactions
Bullish Sentiment from Media Buyers
Many media and agency executives welcomed the 9.5 % forecast as confirmation of budget expansion after economic caution in recent years. Buyers view the projection as evidence that digital ad formats are still capturing market share from older channels — a long‑running trend.
One planning executive commented that the forecast reinforces confidence among clients who were hesitant to expand spending without clearer signals of return on investment.
Debate About Linear TV’s Role
Some traditional TV stakeholders acknowledged that while total ad spend is rising, the linear TV segment is still in decline — a structural shift highlighted by the IAB outlook. That’s prompting broadcasters to push addressable CTV and data‑driven video offerings as ways to remain competitive.
Marketers on AI & Measurement
The IAB report also emphasized AI adoption and better measurement frameworks as drivers of growth, with many advertisers remarking that automation and cross‑platform reporting tools are enabling more efficient campaigns at scale. This aligns with IAB’s findings that AI‑related planning and performance measurement are top strategic priorities for 2026.
Industry practitioners often say that when measurement becomes more consistent, it unlocks further spend because brands feel more confident about return predictions.
Analyst Perspectives
Some ad tech analysts noted that while 9.5 % growth is strong, it isn’t guaranteed — projections depend on economic conditions, privacy changes, and competition for consumer attention. However, many agree that digital formats with clear measurement outcomes (like social commerce and CTV) are the most resilient.
Key Takeaways
| Area | What the Forecast Suggests |
|---|---|
| Total U.S. Ad Spend | Projected to grow ~9.5 % in 2026, signaling marketer confidence. |
| CTV & Video | Expected to grow at double‑digit rates (~13.8 %), attracting increased budget allocations. |
| Social Advertising | Forecast near 14.6 % growth, reflecting investment in engagement & commerce formats. |
| Measurement & AI | Adoption of cross‑platform measurement (~72 %) and AI tools supports media efficiency. |
| Linear TV | Continues to decline modestly, driving shifts toward digital video and programmatic. |
Summary
The IAB’s forecast of 9.5 % growth in U.S. advertising spend in 2026 reflects continued strength in digital media channels — particularly CTV, social media, and performance‑oriented formats — and suggests that marketers are increasingly prioritizing measurement, AI‑enabled strategy, and direct ROI tracking in how they allocate budgets. While legacy formats like linear TV still decline, advertisers are adapting by reallocating spend to channels where audience, measurement, and automation converge.